The shifting landscape of South Asian geopolitics has brought India and Bangladesh to a critical juncture. Bangladesh's tilt towards China and Pakistan under the leadership of Chief Adviser Muhammad Yunus has raised concerns in New Delhi. Let's break down the key developments and their implications.
India-Bangladesh Relations Under Strain
The recent encounter between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Muhammad Yunus at the BIMSTEC summit in Bangkok was viewed as a chance to normalize relations between the two nations. The Bangladesh government's press secretary, Shafiqul Alam, however, manipulated the facts of the encounter, stating that PM Modi praised Yunus's activities and did not dismiss the extradition of Sheikh Hasina. Indian officials firmly rejected the claims and said they were "mischievous and politically motivated.".
China's Increasing Presence in Bangladesh
When Yunus visited China, he requested Beijing to broaden its economic foothold in Bangladesh, referring to the strategic location of the country and proximity to India's landlocked northeastern provinces. China has committed $2.1 billion in loans to Bangladesh for different infrastructure projects such as the Teesta river project, development of Mongla Port, and a Special Economic Zone in Chittagong. This has concerned India regarding China's growing clout in the region and possible dual-use opportunities.
Key Issues of Concern for India
Teesta River Project: Chinese participation in the project would make future water-sharing negotiations between India and Bangladesh more complex.
Mongla Port Modernization: A modernized port would contribute to enhanced Chinese influence in the Bay of Bengal, enhancing its "String of Pearls" strategy against India.
Special Economic Zone in Chittagong: A China-dominated economic zone would develop into a huge logistics hub, aligning with Beijing's vision in the Indo-Pacific region.
Pakistan-Bangladesh Rapprochement
Pakistan is working on reviving relations with Bangladesh, with Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar planning a visit to Dhaka. The two nations are looking to enhance defense cooperation, intelligence sharing, and initiate a Pakistan-Bangladesh Political Consultative Meeting. This rapprochement has induced concerns in India regarding regional security implications.
Regional Implications
The increasing closeness between Bangladesh, China, and Pakistan carries vast regional stability implications. India is concerned about the meaning of heightened military cooperation and intelligence exchange between Bangladesh and Pakistan. The scenario calls for diplomatic intervention to save relations and resolve issues.
In summary, the changing geopolitics of South Asia demands close attention to the intricate dynamics between India, Bangladesh, China, and Pakistan. As the situation keeps changing, it's important to track developments and evaluate their impact on regional stability ¹.