The threat of a three-front war is looming large over Pakistan, as the nation struggles with a complicated maze of crises on its borders. The volatile situation on the eastern front, characterized by increased tensions with India, is compounded by the increasing threat posed by the Balochistan-based separatist movement, the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA), and the proscribed terrorist outfit, Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP).
With the situation worsening day by day, Pakistan is now caught between the proverbial rock and hard place, finding itself unable to cope with the simmering tensions on several fronts. The BLA, engaged in a long-term separatist campaign in Balochistan, has intensified its strikes against Pakistani security forces, hoping to cash in on the area's longstanding grudges against the federal administration.
At the same time, the TTP, which had previously been the unchallenged ruler of the Swat Valley, has reorganized itself and is now coordinating attacks from its Afghan hideouts. Its revival has created shockwaves throughout the region, with numerous people believing that its violent philosophy could catch on like wildfire, further destabilizing an already combustible situation.
The crisis on Pakistan's western frontier is especially disturbing, considering the history of blood and violence from the BLA and TTP. As the momentum of these two groups increases, Pakistan's security establishment finds itself in a David-and-Goliath-like battle to snuff out the chaos and establish peace. The problem is compounded by the reality that both groups have been used to take advantage of the open frontier with Afghanistan and have been known to use the terrain to their favor and attack in Pakistani territory.
The possibility of a three-front war, with India on one front and the BLA and TTP on the other, is a nightmarish one for the Pakistan military. The security forces of the country are already thinly stretched, and the possibility of fighting on many fronts at the same time is a horrific reality that Islamabad is trying its best to avoid. Yet, as tensions remain high, the chance of miscalculation or an inadvertent escalation cannot be discounted.
It is under these tense circumstances that diplomatic initiatives will be essential to prevent the crisis from going off the rails. Pakistan must actively engage India in consistent talks, as well as moderate the legitimate complaints of the Baloch and take tangible action against the TTP's comeback. The international community, at the same time, must play its part in dissuading both sides and pushing for a resolution of the crisis by peaceful means.
As the crisis keeps unfolding, one thing is certain: Pakistan's security establishment will have to be agile and reactive in dealing with the intricate network of crises along its borders. The stakes are too high, and the costs of failure will be catastrophic. Will Pakistan manage to get out of this risky game, or will the threat of a three-front war come true? Only time will tell.