Myanmar's war has turned a dramatic page with the Arakan Army securing a strong advantage over the ruling junta. This has caused ripples across the region, impacting surrounding nations such as China, India, and Bangladesh.
The Arakan Army, which is an ethnic Rakhine rebel group, has been engaging in a battle for more autonomy and rights for the Rakhine. Its recent victories have provided it with control of crucial territory and lines of supply, which has exerted pressure on the junta to negotiate.
Neighbouring China is closely monitoring the situation. Myanmar shares a border with China and has huge economic stakes in Myanmar, such as a major gas and oil pipeline. Any destabilization in the region could compromise these investments and jeopardize China's energy imports.
India, too, is concerned about the situation. New Delhi has been trying to strengthen its ties with Myanmar, seeing it as a key partner in its "Act East" policy. However, the ongoing conflict has raised concerns about the safety of Indian citizens and investments in Myanmar.
Bangladesh, with a lengthy and porous frontier with Myanmar, is also bearing the brunt of the fighting. Thousands of Rohingya refugees fled Myanmar and have settled in refugee camps in Bangladesh. The renewed fighting has set alarm bells ringing for a new wave of refugees, which Bangladesh's resources would struggle to support.
As the crisis in Myanmar keeps unfolding, it is apparent that regional implications will be great. The world will look closely to note how the junta reacts to the Arakan Army's advance and whether it will be able to achieve a negotiated settlement.